Sometimes, those who wander really are lost » thoughts

Auditioning New Alarm Clocks

Brady — Wed, 31 Mar 2010 17:39:53 +0000

I mentioned a while back that I was considering a navel-gazey post about trying to find a new alarm clock. Well, here goes.

I love my alarm clock. It’s a Timex travel alarm clock with an Indiglo backlight. I have owned it for longer than just about everything else that I have owned. I think I was given it as a graduation present during high school. It’s possible that I have had it longer than that. I just don’t remember. I took it with me to on my mission, that’s for certain. It’s followed me from Wyoming to Utah to Michigan. Most everything else has been discarded or acquired somewhere along the line.

My alarm clock looks kind of like this one, but it doesn't have that extension at the back.

I am perfectly attenuated to it. I know exactly when it will go off after a snooze and can usually drag myself out of bed a few moments before it sounds. If for some reason I’m not around to silence it, or I’m already in the shower, I know that it will ring for exactly one minute and then stop. I even love the short high pitched sound it makes when I hit the snooze button.

It’s more than 10 years old by now, and with age, my alarm clock has developed some quirks. Among others, it resets itself and loses the set alarm if it falls off my nightstand (or, as usually happens, when it gets forcibly knocked off my nightstand during the night terrors). This can be problematic, as you might imagine. It used to take a huge drop, but even gentle bumps will reset it these days.

So, reluctantly, last winter, I decided it was time to start auditioning new alarm clocks before it became terribly critical. I had only a few requirements: #1 Battery operated #2 Easy to read in the dark without my contacts in. Actually, #1 is a function of #2, because I usually have to hold it pretty close to my face, and if it were one of those big ones with a power cord, I’d smash my face frequently.

The first trial has ended unsuccessfully. Instead of replacing my alarm clock, I’ve just had two sitting on my nightstand in case one fails. The only things that I like about the new one was that it automatically reset itself for Daylight Savings Time. It was insufficient in all other aspects of alarm-clockery. The backlight is terrible. It rings for too long and at the wrong intervals. For some reason, it has a thermometer which is consistently overly optimistic about how warm my bedroom is. In another oddly designed “feature”, if I hit the backlight, it shows me what time the alarm is set for, rather than what time it is, which has led to a few panicked moments.

So, on to round two, I guess. Anyone know where I can find a brand new Timex Indiglo Travel Alarm clock, vintage 1998, perchance? Or have an awesome alarm clock that snoozes for exactly 8 minutes?

Conference Thoughts

Brady — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 01:43:00 +0000

So that was a great general conference, I thought. The lds.org website already has videos up for most of the talks, which is quick turnaround I thought. Here are some of my thoughts about the conference. I was able to hook my laptop up to my big TV and my internet handled the stream pretty well. I really thought that was a huge process improvement.

Thought #1:
The most exciting part for me happened right at the beginning, when President Monson announced the new temples. It actually took me a minute to process, but then I actually fist-pumped the air after I realized that he had announced a new temple in Concepcion Chile.

Concepcion is just north of where I served my mission in Chile. The Saints in Osorno, Temuco, Valdivia, and all points south will now have much easier access to the temple. Previously it would take between 12 and 36 hours (from Punta Arenas, at the very south of the country) to get to the temple. Now it will be much much closer.

When I was a young Zone Leader in Valdivia, my companion and I motivated our zone by teaching them that work that we were doing was building a temple in the south of Chile. We made a chart that was shaped like the temple, and gave each companionship bricks to paste to it when they achieved certain goals. The point was that everything we were doing was laying a foundation for the building of the temple. That chart is probably still in a storage closet in a missionary apartment somewhere in Valdivia, but it’s really nice to know that the work we did, actually in fact did lay the groundwork for a temple that would serve the saints in the South of Chile.

Thought #2:
I got incredibly lost on my way to the Priesthood session on Saturday night. It’s not like I don’t know where the church is or anything. While I was driving over, I started worrying at something in my mind, and shifted into autopilot, and ended up driving past the exit I needed, and heading towards work. Not where I wanted to be on a Saturday night. After attempting to correct my error, I made a few more wrong turns, and ended up getting myself completely lost in a part of Ypsilanti that I didn’t really know. Needless to say, I was fairly frazzled when I actually did make it to the chapel, although I only missed the singing at the beginning.

Elder Uchtdorf’s talk really comforted me. He spoke of filling one’s time with work and knowledge and somehow was exactly what I needed to hear. I also took some of the weirdest notes that I’ve ever taken during his talk. I must have been free associating and doodling, and my thoughts just spilled out on to the page. I’m absolutely certain that I was driving the guy next to me crazy, with my pencil in constant motion as I turned my notebook around and around for 20 minutes.

Now imagine 3 pages worth of this.

The talks over at lds.org aren’t embeddable yet. I’m not sure if they will be or not, but you can watch his talk at this address. You have to click “Priesthood” and then scroll over to “President Dieter F. Uchtdorf.” If they make it available to embed, I’ll do that.

Update: Here’s a link to his talk. Here’s the video too:

Thought #3:
I just loved Elder Holland’s talk about the Book of Mormon in the Sunday afternoon session. It felt like everyone that I was watching conference at was at the edges of their seats. I’m really still processing it, so I don’t really know what else to say. He can really turn a phrase though.

If I’m diligent, once the text of his talk goes up on the web, I’ll link to it. For now, you can view it at the same link as above, except click “Sunday PM” and scroll over to “Elder Jeffery R. Holland.”

Update: Here’s a link to the text of his talk. And here’s the video:

Thought #4:
Does General Conference make anyone else super domestic? I was cooking during at least 3 of the sessions. I made banana bread, Amy’s Oatmeal Wheat bread, and some Basil Potatoes. What’s up with that?
So, anyone else have thoughts about General Conference? Which talks were the best for you?

Questions and answers

Brady — Sat, 13 Dec 2008 23:10:00 +0000

This will probably be my last post about the auto industry for a while. I’m sure that you’re tired of reading these long winded posts with me begging for your understanding. Unfortunately, the Senate failed to act on the bill, largely due to resistance from Republican Senators. Fortunately, it looks as if the Administration will tap the TARP funds to provide short term relief until the next Congress is sworn in.

One of my friends saw my previous post about the bridge loans and asked me some questions, which I think are fairly common. I spent a good bit of time responding, and felt like the results were good enough to share. With her permission, I’ve attached her unedited questions and my unedited responses. I am by no means an expert, but I feel fairly confident in my understanding of the issues.

I promise to post something not auto industry related shortly. Maybe a recipe or something. We haven’t had one of those in a long time.

Questions and Answers:

Ok, if I am wrong or you see a different take on things, maybe you can explain them. But here’s my problem with giving Ford and the other motor companies a loan…

Why do they need a loan in the first place? If Ford made a profit in their first quarter and made some cost reductions, well, gas prices are down and while the credit crisis is still very serious, I think that it might be getting better. So why do they have to have this loan to survive?

Here’s the long and the short of it. Last year, the US auto sales were something like 17 million new vehicles (This is industry sales, all cars sold in the US). During the first quarter, the sales rate was trending around 15-16 million cars for the full year, not great, but not shabby either. By the time the second quarter got here, it had fallen a little more, primarily due to gas prices. At the same time, the price of steel doubled, from about $500 / ton to $1000 / ton. Over the summer, the credit crisis starts really fouling things up. By October, industry sales are trending at 10 million units on an annual basis. By November, the Year over year (That is, Nov-07 to Nov-08) sales dropped by about 35-40%. Simply put, the # of cars sold in the US has fallen dramatically to levels that are unsustainable for the industry. We have a fixed cost base that requires we sell a certain # of cars to pay the bills (bills that we will have to pay regardless of how many vehicles we produce. Think health care benefits to our retirees, or energy costs to keep the assembly plants heated, things like that). The American consumer simply isn’t buying right now, not from Ford, nor from anyone else.

In normal times, the companies would just go to the credit or equity markets and get the funds to cover it. Unfortunately, no one is lending to anyone. People can’t get loans for their houses, the auto companies can’t get loans for their fixed costs.

Ford is fortunately in the best situation of the Detroit. GM and Chrysler are on the verge of running out of cash. Ford obtained credit and lines of credit back in 2006, before the credit markets froze up, and so isn’t facing the same liquidity problems. In fact, we aren’t asking for loans right now, but rather a line of credit (think a credit card, available when you need it, but the cash isn’t in your pocket right now.) in case of a failure of one of our competitors or in case the recession doesn’t end as quickly as people are projecting.

Ford’s biggest fear right now is that the failure of one or both of the other two Detroit companies would cause a large scale disruption within the supply chain. Basically, as an industry, we have something like 75% overlapping suppliers. We buy our parts from the same people that build parts for GM and Chrysler. Now, imagine if one of those suppliers suddenly lost a third of their business. It’s not an easy obstacle, but you might be able to get past it, maybe. If 700 or 1000 suppliers and sub-suppliers suddenly lost 1/3 or more of their business, not all of them would stay in business. Suddenly, Ford wouldn’t be able to build cars, simply because they can’t get nuts or seats or steering wheels. Obviously, it would take time to find someone to make the new widget, test it to make sure it is safe, and get that new part to the assembly plants. If Ford couldn’t sell cars for all of that time, it would put us in a very dire position. That’s why we are asking for the loans to be given to the other two companies.

What is Ford going to do once they get this loan to make things better for the American citizen? Are they going to lower the cost of all their vehicles? Make it easier to get a car loan? Maybe build even more factories and create more jobs?

I’ll answer this one in general, because Ford isn’t asking for the loan right now. The other two need the money simply to survive a few more months to restructure their costs. They will probably use the money to continue development of new cars, including the Chevy Volt, and other new green technologies. They will use it to retool plants to make these new cars. But with the legislation as it stands right now, basically they are buying themselves some time. According to the bill that the House passed, they have until March 31 to develop and implement cost reductions. This will probably include wage cuts and other concessions, a restructuring of debt (i.e. reworking the terms of loans, swapping GM stock for debt, other things like that). I haven’t read the GM or Chrysler plans, so I don’t really know what they are planning.

I do know that Ford has dramatically shifted development of its product line up to focus on smaller cars and more fuel efficient cross-overs. We are doing that independent of the government financing, but that requires that we retool plants that once produced trucks and SUVs to be able to produce Focuses and Fusions, etc. Not inexpensive.

I doubt that the companies would lower the prices of the cars, because the cost of material and assembly hasn’t fallen off that much. Selling at a loss, especially when you have a big government loan to repay, probably isn’t a great idea. Hopefully, they would be able to make car loans more available, but that has more to do with the ability of the financing companies to raise capital. Ford Credit is still making loans and leases, although I’ve heard that isn’t true for many of the other car credit companies.

Who is to say that this loan will be put to good use and not wasted? Is there any guarantee that jobs will not be lost and things will get better even if it is made?

It’s hard to say how you would be able to tell if it is put to good use. The current legislation would have the President appoint a “Car Czar” who would monitor the progress of the restructuring, report back to Congress on a regular basis, and would have some say in the decision making process, especially large expenditures. During the Chrysler bailout in the early 1980s, this kind of watchdog was put in place, and it seemed to be effective.

There is of course never any guarantee. From my point of view, I’d rather take the risk that it might not work than the certainty of failure.

Why should a company get a loan when we, the average American family, cannot even get a loan to consolidate our debts and make it a little easier to get by each month? Is that really fair?

We can’t get a loan from anyone either. However, if we don’t get the loans, and the industry fails, by some estimates between 3 and 5 million people will lose their jobs. I don’t think that’s a good solution, by any stretch of the imagination. I, like many others, thought that the other bailout was supposed to make it easier for the average American family to get loans. Somehow, that hasn’t happened yet. The government has serious questions to answer about that, but I digress.

I love ya and want you to keep your job, but if not giving this loan helps to make things just a little bit more fair, if that money could go somewhere else to help more people, then why shouldn’t it? (And I’m not talking welfare and food stamps either) Why can’t this loan money be put directly into the hands of those who have high amounts of debt and are trying to pay it off instead?

Again, I don’t have a really good answer here. The government previously approved $700 Billion for just that purpose. The amount of loans that are being requested by the auto companies isn’t chump change, by any stretch, but it also isn’t (relatively speaking) a huge amount of money. The principal difference that I see between large scale debt relief and a bridge loan to the auto industry is where that money will be going. Debt relief is basically paying back money that has already been spent, (an investment in the past), while the bridge loans will be investments for the future, investments that will pay back by creating value in the economy. Both would add liquidity to the larger economy, but only one creates ongoing value.

I’m not trying to be mean or cruel. I just want to understand why this will make such a difference and why it is so needed.

I understand that many people don’t understand the gravity of this. Some people don’t understand the complexity of the auto business, or the long lead times, or the costs. Thanks for giving me the chance to explain some of it. If you’ve got any more questions, I’m willing to answer any and all of them.

How I voted

Brady — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 02:02:00 +0000

I know that I will be judged deficient for what I am about to post. I’ve already had two negative reactions when I told someone how I voted today. I’ve been pretty open about my indecision, and I feel that it would be cheating to not reveal how I actually voted. Please don’t call me stupid for my opinion. I respect yours.

Let me say that I did put a lot of thought and effort into this, although I think I could have probably done more. I honestly believe that both candidates are good men, good leaders, and both would lead the country in positive, albeit distinctly different, directions.

I ended up voting for John McCain.

The principal reasons I voted for McCain:

1- I believe that raising taxes on business is not the way to create jobs. I work for a company that would likely be penalized by Obama’s plan, not only not creating jobs, but putting my job in danger.

2- I know and understand McCain’s voting record over a long series of years. I tried to look up Obama’s record and found a whole bunch of Did not Votes. I used votesmart.org to compare records and special interest group ratings.

3- McCain and Palin are both western leaders, and understand the issues of the West. For me, that is important even though I am technically a Midwesterner right now.

I used a few different “Select a Candidate” style online quizes, but the one I trust the most, from American Public Media, gave both candidates a tied score. I guess that makes me truly middle of the road.

The opinion that finally tipped the scale was actually one that I trust quite a bit, and you’ll laugh when I say it: Orson Scott Card, one of my favorite sci-fi authors. Honestly, he’s kind of out there sometimes, and I can’t really explain why, but this article and this article were the last two that I read before I made my decision. Don’t think that I can’t see through the (clearly heavy handed) rhetoric in them, because I can. They helped me clarify my position on what was important to me.

I honestly think that Obama will likely win the election (As I write this, NPR has it 200 to 76 – favoring Obama), and I am really ok with it. I think this country needs to move beyond partisanship, demonizing the other side, the side that you don’t agree with as “evil,” “stupid,” and “just plain wrong.” A house divided against itself can never stand. I think both candidates are capable of truly building a great nation. (It’s now 200 to 90 – favoring Obama.)

God Bless America!

So why are you supporting McCain, my friends?

Brady — Thu, 16 Oct 2008 01:53:00 +0000

So, I’m sitting here, watching the debate (unfortunately without debate cookies), and coming down from a runner’s high. I realized that I never asked the second half of my presidential politics question: Why are you supporting John McCain in this election?

Devoted readers will know that I am horribly undecided in this campaign, and still can’t really make up my mind about who I will vote for this November. I have a list of things that I like and don’t like about each candidate, and right now, they about balance each other out.

As part of my research, I’m asking you, dear reader, to discuss politics with me. I’m not really interested in why you aren’t voting for McCain. I’m interested in the positive aspects of why you support him. Do you think his tax credit for health care will work? Do you think his tax cuts will work to stimulate the economy? Are his foreign policies the way to improve America’s standing in the world?

I still welcome thoughts about Obama in my previous post. If you support him, feel free to leave me a comment here. I’ve enabled anonymous comments for both posts, which you can use if you don’t want me to know who you are?

Oh, and if you see Joe the Plumber out there, I’d really like to know who you are voting for, but I’d also like to stop hearing about you.

Ten Years Ago

Brady — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 16:41:00 +0000

I was reading my daily news sites, and when I got to the Wyoming section of my reading list, I realized that today was the ten year anniversary of an event that had an important impact on my life.

Ten years ago, during my freshman year at the University of Wyoming, Matthew Shepard was tied to a fence post outside of Laramie, beaten, and left to die. He was discovered the next day, still alive, but tragically he did not survive his injuries and died in a coma a few days later.

The reason most commonly given for the attack was the fact that Shepard was gay. His kidnappers/attackers had offered him a ride home from a local bar, and then turned on him, pistol whipped him, stole his shoes, and abandoned him.

In Laramie, the reaction to the killing was generally outrage. I remember a newcast where a hardened old cowboy took off his hat, shook his head, and said “That’s not the way we do things in Wyoming.”

One month into my education at UW, the quiet town of Laramie was turned on its head. Several opposition groups (some representing activist churches) protested loudly and spread messages of hate. One of my honors classes took time to discuss the events, to try to see what had happened from several points of view. Many in the community, including myself, wore yellow cloth armbands with three green circles on them to show that we supported tolerance, not hate.

It was a chance for me to reflect on what it meant to be Mormon. The saints had been victims of hate and violence a century and a half before. Christ spread the message of tolerance, love for all, and hope. I had seen outpourings of hope and love, but had also seen the dangers of taking religious beliefs too far.

The events of a decade ago have moved me to be more tolerant… to take a moment to remember that Jesus said love everyone, to treat them kindly too. Even if I don’t share belief or value systems, even if I find those beliefs and values repugnant, I try to remember there is a person underneath and that they have value.

Matthew Shepard changed me. I hope that we all can all be changed for the better by the tragedy of Matthew Shepard.

Why are you voting for Obama?

Brady — Tue, 09 Sep 2008 16:51:00 +0000

Ok, so I’m a news junkie. I’ll admit it. I love news, because it tells me something about how the world works, and how people react to it. Right now, the news is unfortunately all politics all the time. So what do you think I spend my time thinking about.

As you know, I’m trying to give the current batch of candidates a fair chance for my vote, instead of relying on the party lines. I consider myself to be a moderate Republican leaning kind of guy (I think I’d call myself a Public Radio Republican). If you check my Facebook, you’ll see that at least over there, I support McCain. (I added that support at about the time that Mitt dropped out of the race. No way was I supporting Hucky.) I also know that some of the readers of my blog support Obama.

In the interest of gathering information, and not descending into politics, I’d like to ask the readers of my blog why they support Obama. Use the anonymous setting to leave a comment, please, as I don’t really want anyone to feel uncomfortable leaving their thoughts. If you support McCain and want to say something, just wait your turn… I’ll get to you…

Also, I won’t be persuaded by “He isn’t Bush” or “He’s for change.” Give me something concrete to work with.